LOCAL BY-ELECTION ANALYSIS SHOWS SWING TO SNP INCREASING.

LOCAL BY-ELECTION ANALYSIS SHOWS SWING TO SNP INCREASING.

SWING FROM LABOUR CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THIRD YEAR INTO GOVERNMENT.

Following the Monifieth and Sidlaw by-election - which the SNP won with the biggest vote share in any ward since PR was introduced - the party has published an analysis of all local council by-elections held since May 2007 which shows that the swing to the SNP from Labour is increasing as the SNP enters its third year in Government.

In 2007 the SNP enjoyed a swing of 2% in all three local by-elections held in that year. This compares to a swing of 5% to the SNP from Labour in all 12 local by-elections held in 2008. Now, halfway into 2009, the swing to the SNP from Labour in all by-elections has increased further. With 9 by-elections held so far the SNP has secured a 6% swing from Labour.

Commenting on the analysis the SNP's Business Convener and Westminster Leader Angus Robertson MP said:

"These are excellent results for the SNP. Not only was securing the largest vote share in any ward in Scotland a triumph in Monifieth and Sidlaw but for the swings from Labour to be increasing year on year shows that the people of Scotland support the SNP Government, and back the SNP’s record of delivery.

"For the swing from Labour to the SNP to increase over three years shows that trust in the SNP is actually increasing.

"The reality is that people like what they get from the SNP – in local communities and across Scotland – and they like what the SNP Government is doing by freezing council tax and investing more to help the construction sector. In these tough times that is what people want, and they are repaying the SNP with ever growing levels of support both locally and nationally.

"People like our message of confidence in Scotland and the people of Scotland, instead of the tired old scare mongering from the London parties. People believe Scotland has what it takes to get through this recession and are rejecting Labour's message of doom.

"That swings to the SNP are also greater in supposed areas of Labour strength further shows that we are breathing down their necks in what used to be their heartlands.

"And that the swing is INCREASING from 2007 when the SNP ended Labour's dominance in Scottish politics shows that Labour's position in Scotland is getting weaker – and that it is the SNP which is moving even further forward from our high point in May 2007.

"And it will be SNP success in the Westminster election that will stop Labour's planned £500 million of cuts to Scotland's budget in their tracks."

1. BY-ELECTION ANALYSIS

i. The results of all three local by-elections in Scotland in 2007 were:

Party: Votes - % (% Change from 2007)

SNP: 3,236 - 35% (+1%)

Labour: 1,913 - 21% (-3%)

Tory: 1,602 - 17% (-1%)

LibDem: 1,770 - 19% (3%)

Others: 656 - 7% (0%)

Swing from Labour to SNP = +2%

The following 3 local by-elections took place in 2007:

Midstocket/Rosemount (Aberdeen Council) 16th August 2007

Helensburgh and Lomond South (Argyll & Bute Council) 4th October 2007

Lochee (Dundee Council) 22nd November 2007

ii. The results of the local by-elections held in Scotland in 2008 were as follows:

Party: Votes - % (% Change from 2007)

SNP: 15,215 - 36% (+6%)

Labour: 13,402 - 32% (-4%)

Tory: 5,933 - 14% (0%)

LibDem: 3,014 - 7% (1%)

Other: 4,388 - 10% (-3%)

Swing from Labour to SNP = +5%

The following 12 local by-elections took place in 2008:

Kilsyth (North Lanarkshire Council) 31st January 2008

Elgin City South (Moray Council) 14th February 2008

Highland Ward (Perth & Kinross Council) 21st February 2008

Lerwick South (Shetland Council) 28th February 2008

Cambuslang East (South Lanarkshire Council) 6th March 2008

Troup (Aberdeenshire Council) 1st May 2008

Abbey (Dumfries & Galloway Council) 1st May 2008

Baillieston (Glasgow Council) 18th September 2008

Forth (Edinburgh Council) 6th November 2008

Baillieston (Glasgow Council) 6th November 2008

Ballochmyle (East Ayrshire Council) 11th December 2008

Kilbirnie & Beith (North Ayrshire Council) 11th December 2008

iii. The results of the local by-elections held in Scotland in 2009 so far are as follows:

Party: Votes - % (% Change from 2007)

SNP: 10,795 - 35% (+4%)

Labour: 8,358 - 27% (-8%)

Tory: 3,698 - 12% (-2%)

LibDem: 4,886 - 16% (5%)

Other: 3,319 - 11% (1%)

Swing from Labour to SNP = +6%

The following 9 local by-elections have taken place in 2009 so far:

Maryfield (Dundee Council) 12th March 2009

Inverness West (Highland Council) 23rd April 2009

Aboyne, Upper Deeside & Donside (Aberdeenshire Council) 23rd April 2009

Bannockburn (Stirling Council) 30th April 2009

Coatbridge North and Glenboig (North Lanarkshire Council) 4th June 2009

Drumchapel Anniesland (Glasgow Council) 4th June 2009

Bishopbriggs South (East Dunbartonshire Council) 4th June 2009

Inverclyde South West (Inverclyde Council) 18th June 2009

Monifieth and Sidlaw (Angus Council) 25th June 2009

2. MONIFEITH & SIDLAW BY-ELECTION

i. The result of the by-election held yesterday was:

SNP: 2,486 - 69%

Tory: 698 - 19%

LibDem: 439 - 12%

SNP win on first count with majority of the first preference votes.

69% is the highest share of the vote for any party in any ward since the current proportional representation voting system was introduced. That covers 377 contests - 353 wards that elected in 2007 and 24 by-elections since.

ii. The previous result in terms of first preference votes in 2007 was:

SNP: 4100 - 54%

Tory: 1396 - 18%

Labour: 1040 - 14%

LibDem: 544 - 7%

Other: 473 - 6%