MASSIVE POLL FIGURES FOR SNP FOR HOLYROOD AND WESTMINSTER.

MASSIVE POLL FIGURES FOR SNP FOR HOLYROOD AND WESTMINSTER.

The SNP has welcomed a new poll by Ipsos-MORI in Holyrood Magazine which gives the party a considerable leads over Labour in both Holyrood and Westminster elections. The survey of voting intentions puts the SNP 7 points ahead of Labour for Holyrood and two points ahead for Westminster. However when the certainty to vote is taken into account the SNP’s lead increases further to 13 points for Holyrood and six points for Westminster.

If this result were replicated at a Westminster election the SNP would gain 19 seats with a swing of nearly 14% from Labour, and if replicated at Holyrood it would see the SNP win 55 seats to Labour’s 35 – a 20 seat lead over Labour.

Commenting on the poll SNP Depute Leader and Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon MSP said:

“These are really excellent poll ratings for the SNP at both Westminster and Holyrood. Not only do they demonstrate that the SNP Government is winning the debate in Holyrood but also building support for sending SNP MPs to fight Scotland's corner in Westminster. They also show our vote is far more motivated than Labour's.

"Voters are demonstrating that they respect a party that is prepared to take hard decisions and a party that stands up for protecting the jobs of Scottish workers and investment in Scottish public services.

“Our Programme for Government shows that we are setting the Scottish political agenda, with this commanding poll lead – putting the SNP in an even stronger poll position over Labour than when we won the election in 2007.

“With new legislation coming forward that will protect homes, tackle the problem of alcohol in our society, invest in our economy and fulfil our commitment for a referendum to give Scotland the power to address our economic needs this poll shows the SNP is continuing to take Scotland forward with the support of the Scottish people.”

Notes

Details of the poll along with a seats analysis for both Westminster and Holyrood are as follows as well as attached in pdf format.

1. Westminster Voting Intentions and Seats Analysis

	All respondents
Party	2005 Votes	Poll	Change
SNP	17.66%	32.00%	+14.34%
Labour	39.52%	30.00%	-9.52%
Tory	15.83%	17.00%	1.17%
LibDem	22.63%	13.00%	-9.63%
A swing of 11.93% from Labour to the SNP
	Certain to Vote
Party	2005 Votes	Poll	Change
SNP	17.66%	33.00%	+15.34%
Labour	39.52%	27.00%	-12.52%
Tory	15.83%	18.00%	2.17%
LibDem	22.63%	14.00%	-8.63%
A swing of 13.93% from Labour to the SNP
	Seat Prediction on Certain to Vote
Party	2005 Seats	Pred Seats	Change
SNP	6	25	+19
Labour	41	21	-20
Tory	1	4	3
LibDem	11	9	-2

2. Holyrood Voting Intentions and Seats Analysis – notional regional vote based on constituency vote.

	All respondents
	Constituency Vote			Regional Vote
Party	2007	Poll	Change	2007	Poll	Change
SNP	32.90%	36%	+3.10%	31.00%	36%	+5.00%
Labour	32.10%	29%	-3.10%	29.20%	29%	-0.20%
Tory	16.60%	14%	-2.60%	13.90%	14%	0.10%
LibDem	16.20%	14%	-2.20%	11.30%	14%	2.70%
Green	0.00%	3%	3.00%	4.00%	3%	-1.00%
Other	2.00%	4%	2.00%	10.60%	4%	-6.60%
	Certain to Vote
	Constituency Vote			Regional Vote
Party	2007	Poll	Change	2007	Poll	Change
SNP	32.90%	38%	+5.10%	31.00%	38%	+7.00%
Labour	32.10%	25%	-7.10%	29.20%	25%	-4.20%
Tory	16.60%	15%	-1.60%	13.90%	15%	1.10%
LibDem	16.20%	15%	-1.20%	11.30%	15%	3.70%
Green	0.00%	3%	3.00%	4.00%	3%	-1.00%
Other	2.00%	4%	2.00%	10.60%	4%	-6.60%
	Seat Prediction on Certain to Vote
	TOTAL MSPs			Constituency MSPs
Party	2007	Poll	Change	2007	Poll	Change
SNP	47	55	+8	21	35	+14
Labour	46	35	-11	37	20	-17
Tory	17	18	1	4	6	2
LibDem	16	20	4	11	12	1
Green	2	1	-1	0	0	0
Other	1	0	-1	0	0	0

Sample: 1,000

Fieldwork dates: 20 August to 31st August 2009

Respondent Type: General public, interviewed by telephone